Archive for July 13th, 2010

July 13th, 2010

Polling the 1st Middlesex Senate Race

by DickH

For the past few days our home phone has been dialed by someone the caller ID has named “Arizona” so we haven’t gotten around to answering. Someone I was speaking to this morning did pick-up when the 48th state called and ended up on the phone for 20 minutes answering a poll about the 1st Middlesex State Sentate race featuring Eileen Donoghue and Chris Doherty. Here’s some of what the survey taker asked my reporter:

How likely are you to vote in the Democratic primary for State Senate in September. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (1) Patrick Deval (yes, that’s exactly how the poll taker asked it), (2) Niki Tsongas, (3) Marty Meehan (pronounced “Me-hann”), (4) Tim Cahill, (5) Steve Panagiotakos (pronounced something like “Pan-acropolis”) (6) Chris Doherty, (7) Eileen Donghue.

Next the person being surveyed was asked to rate the importance of the following issues on a scale of 1 to 10: immigration, local property taxes, environment, difficulty in firing bad teachers, that a person is an “outsider” running for office, the high costs of healthcare.

Next, the person being surveyed was asked whether the following statements about the candidates “make you concerned or not concerned:” that a candidate was a career prosecutor; that a candidate had helped juveniles turn away from crime and get off streets; that a candidate had defended a person that produced fake IDs for minors, that a candidate was a political “insider”; that a candidate had given money to a Republican candidate who was backed by Mitt Romney (the questioner flubbed up his name too), that a candidate had used used $500K of their own money to run for Congress; that a candidate, while a Lowell city councilor, had voted against balancing the city’s budget.

There were quite a few other questions but they had rating choices like “very concerned, somewhat concerned, no opinion, somewhat not concerned and not concerned” and were worded in a very confusing (and unmemorable) way. Towards the end, the survey asked whether the respondent was going to vote for Chris Doherty or Eileen Donoghue and how likely was it that the respondent would change that choice. The poll ended by asking whether the respondent was Latino and the respondent’s race; also whether the respondent was married, single, with partner, divorced, etc and whether there was a child under 18 in the house.

Who could have commissioned a poll such as this?

July 13th, 2010

Some Poignant Political Commentary

by Andrew

Last fall I took a class with Niall Ferguson, the historian who is easily the most prominent proponent of the use of counterfactual history. Counterfactuals are “what if”s: what if the British had spent the same amount of money fighting the American Revolution as the French (never mind Napoleon), what if the Federal Reserve had performed open market operations in 1929 – questions such as that. Ferguson’s argument is that, by asking these questions, we can better understand what actually happened. I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic about the value of counterfactuals; they’re certainly fun, and can be useful, but it always seemed to me that Ferguson took them too far. But we all ask them. And much as we like to ask “what if” questions about history, we do it even more with our political process.

A few minutes ago I noticed this blog post in my Facebook news feed. Lynne Lupien from Left in Lowell had reposted it from a friend. I had never heard of the blog or its author, but it was about a counterfactual and I couldn’t resist. What followed was one of the most poignant pieces of political commentary I’ve read in recent months. The “what if” concerns the Tea Party. And unfortunately, I think the author is right.

The blog post can be found here. It’s worth reading if you have the time.

July 13th, 2010

Save the Date: Lowell Cemetery Tours

by DickH

We’ve just scheduled several guided tours of historic Lowell Cemetery for the coming months. They are still a ways off, but you can at least get them on your schedule:

  • Saturday – August 14 – 10 am
  • Friday – September 10 – 1 pm
  • Saturday – September 11 – 10 am
  • Friday – October 1 – 1 pm
  • Saturday – October 2 – 10 am

The tours begin at the Knapp Avenue entrance (right behind Shedd Park) and are all free of charge, last about 90 minutes, involve a considerable amount of walking and occur rain or shine.  For more information about the tours and the cemetery, check out the Lowell Cemetery website.