richardhowe.com

This past Tuesday Niki Tsongas won reelection, defeating Republican challenger Jon Golnik, 54% to 42%. Tsongas won 22 of the 29 towns in the Fifth Congressional District and the seven won by Golnik were by relatively small margins (Bolton by 4, Chelmsford by 237, Dracut by 334, Dunstable by 137, Lancaster by 70, Shirley by 1 and Tyngsborough by 429). Tsongas won her home town of Lowell, 13,694 to 7397 (63% to 34%), while Golnik lost his home town of Carlisle, 1472 to 1178 (55% to 44%).

Percentage-wise, the three best communities for Tsongas were Lawrence (9570 votes to 2670 – 76% to 21%), Concord (5747 votes to 2767 – 67% to 32%) and Acton (5902 to 3052 – 65% to 33%). The three best communities for Golnik were Dunstable (757 to 620 – 54% to 44%), Tyngsborough (2426 to 1997 – 53% to 44%), and Dracut (5441 to 5107 – 50% to 47%). The community with the percentage split that came closest to the final result was Acton, where Tsongas received 54% to Golnik’s 43%.

Tsongas was unopposed in the 2008 election, but in the 2007 special election in which she won the seat, she faced Republican Jim Ogonowski of Dracut. In 2007, Tsongas received 52% of the vote to Ogonowski’s 45%, a seven point margin of victory that was considerably smaller than the twelve point advantage Tsongas won in this election. The strongest communities for Tsongas in 2007 were Lawrence (69% to 27%), Concord (68% to 30%) and Wayland (66% to 33%). The strongest communities for Ogonowski were Dracut (65% to 32%), Tyngsborough (55% to 41%), and a Methuen (53% to 44%) Billerica (53% to 43%) tie. Tsongas won her home town of Lowell, 53% to 40% while Ogonowski won his home town of Dracut, 65% to 32%.

The total vote in 2010 (209,647) was nearly double that in 2007 (106,063) so one must be cautious in drawing conclusions based on these two elections, still comparing the numbers does help illustrate the strength of the Tsongas victory in this year’s election.

Brown lost again, along with Mitt Romney, for wrapping his arms around Perry, tainted by the then-police sergeant’s connection years ago to an illegal strip search of a teenage girl. The Boston Herald lost when its major office endorsees went down, as did the full panoply of newspapers statewide who backed Mary Connaughton for auditor, an endorsement that should have had clout in a low-visibility race .

In losing, 4th District Republican Bielat can hold his head high. He made Barney Frank work very hard and spent lots of money for a much narrower margin of victory that he is used to. Bielat comes out of the campaign with the foundation for an organization that may be successful next time, if not for Congress then for some other office. (Remember Joe Malone’s success after losing to Ted Kennedy in the eighties?)

In his victory speech last night, Frank was characteristically ungracious, typically irascible and factually correct. The election’s over. No more Mr. Nice Guy. He’ll need that tough-mindedness when he returns to the House, having to fight to defend gains made last term in a more hospitable environment.

With the House turning Republican Frank and other members of the Massachusetts delegation, including Congressman Ed Markey will lose their committee and subcommittee chairmanships. The MA State House is the local GOP’s silver lining. Republicans doubled their numbers, and, while far from reaching critical mass, will have an opportunity to begin rebuilding a two-party system….sort of.

Governor Patrick won convincingly, what Joan Vennochi calls “A Massachusetts Miracle,” but lost over $100 million with the peel-back of the sales tax on alcohol. Add that to the $2 billion estimated deficit he’ll have to deal with the next fiscal year, and he may wake up with a voice in his ear chanting, “Be careful what you wish for.”

Charlie Baker lost his “fair-haired boy,” wunderkind image not just in losing but in never living up to his long-anticipated promise as a candidate. That said, he added immeasurably to the policy debate and raised some solid ideas (notably many of his “Baker’s Dozen.”) All of us will win if he stays engaged in the civic process.

Obviously, President Obama lost in losing the House and in seeing so many state offices go red. In today’s press conference, he called it “a shellacking,” But if he doesn’t act nimbly the worst could be ahead. In holding on to the Senate, he will lose the Harry Truman opportunity to run cleanly against a do nothing Congress.